> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://betterdatainc.mintlify.site/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Forecasting Overview
> Role-oriented guide to demand forecasting and scenario management
# Forecasting Overview
Demand forecasting helps you predict future inventory needs and optimize replenishment decisions. This guide explains forecasting from a role-oriented perspective.
## Recommended Starting Points by Role
**Don't Hide Menu Items**: All users see the same forecasting menu. This guide explains recommended starting points for each role, but you can access any forecasting feature you have permissions for.
### Planner (Forecasting + Replenishment)
**Start here:**
1. **[Forecast Scenarios](/decide/forecast-scenarios)** - Create and manage forecast scenarios
2. **[Forecast Events](/decide/forecast-events)** - Apply events (promotions, seasonality) to forecasts
3. **[Forecast Accuracy](/decide/forecast-accuracy)** - Measure and improve forecast accuracy
4. **[Channel Projections](/decide/forecast-scenarios#channel-projections)** - View forecasts by channel
**Daily workflow:**
* Create forecast scenarios for key products/channels
* Apply events (promotions, seasonality) to forecasts
* Generate and publish forecasts
* Monitor forecast accuracy
* Adjust forecasts based on accuracy insights
### Operations (Warehouse/Inventory)
**Start here:**
1. **[View Forecasts](/decide/forecast-scenarios)** - View published forecasts
2. **[Forecast vs Actuals](/improve/forecast-accuracy)** - Compare forecasts to actual demand
3. **[Deviation Alerts](/decide/forecast-accuracy#deviation-alerts)** - Review forecast deviation alerts
**Daily workflow:**
* Review published forecasts for planning
* Compare forecasts to actual demand
* Review deviation alerts
* Provide feedback on forecast accuracy
### Finance (COGS, Holding Cost, Cost-to-Serve)
**Start here:**
1. **[Forecast Accuracy Metrics](/decide/forecast-accuracy)** - Review MAPE, WAPE, bias metrics
2. **[Forecast Reports](/improve/reports)** - Generate forecast vs actuals reports
3. **[Forecast Impact Analysis](/decide/forecast-accuracy#impact-analysis)** - Analyze forecast impact on costs
**Daily workflow:**
* Review forecast accuracy metrics
* Analyze forecast impact on inventory costs
* Generate forecast reports for analysis
* Monitor forecast bias trends
### Executive (Summary Dashboards)
**Start here:**
1. **[Forecast Dashboards](/improve/dashboards)** - High-level forecast overview
2. **[Forecast KPIs](/improve/kpis)** - Key forecast performance indicators
3. **[Forecast Accuracy Summary](/decide/forecast-accuracy)** - Overall accuracy metrics
**Daily workflow:**
* Review forecast dashboard summaries
* Monitor forecast accuracy trends
* Review forecast performance KPIs
* Analyze forecast impact on business
## Key Forecasting Concepts
### Forecast Scenarios
Forecast scenarios represent different forecast models with specific assumptions:
* **Base Scenario**: Standard forecast without events
* **Promotion Scenario**: Forecast with promotion events applied
* **Seasonal Scenario**: Forecast with seasonality adjustments
* **What-If Scenarios**: Explore different assumptions
### Forecast Events
Events represent demand influencers:
* **Promotions**: Sales, discounts, marketing campaigns
* **Seasonality**: Holiday seasons, back-to-school, etc.
* **Marketing Campaigns**: TV, digital, print campaigns
* **External Factors**: Weather, events, competition
### Channel Projections
Forecasts can be viewed by sales channel:
* **DTC Channel**: Direct-to-consumer forecasts
* **Marketplace Channel**: Amazon, eBay forecasts
* **Retail Channel**: Physical store forecasts
* **Wholesale Channel**: B2B forecasts
### Forecast Accuracy
Measure how well forecasts match actual demand:
* **MAPE**: Mean Absolute Percentage Error
* **WAPE**: Weighted Absolute Percentage Error
* **Bias**: Over-forecasting vs under-forecasting
* **Hit Rate**: Percentage within tolerance
## Forecasting Workflow
Create and manage forecast scenarios
Apply events to forecasts
View channel projections and long-term forecasts
Measure and improve forecast accuracy
## Understanding Channel Policy Effects
Channel policies affect how forecasts are interpreted and used:
### ATP (Available to Promise) Policies
Channel policies define:
* **Minimum Stock**: Minimum inventory level for channel
* **Safety Stock**: Safety stock level for channel
* **Reserve Stock**: Reserve stock for commitments
**Impact on Forecasts:**
* Forecasts consider channel ATP policies
* Replenishment recommendations account for safety stock
* Channel allocations affect forecast fulfillment
### Replenishment Policies
Channel policies define:
* **Reorder Point**: When to reorder for channel
* **Order Quantity**: How much to order
* **Lead Time**: Expected lead time
**Impact on Forecasts:**
* Forecasts inform reorder point calculations
* Forecasts drive order quantity recommendations
* Lead times affect forecast horizon
### Alert Policies
Channel policies define:
* **Low Stock Alert**: Threshold for low stock alerts
* **Stockout Alert**: Threshold for stockout alerts
* **Forecast Deviation Alert**: Threshold for forecast deviation
**Impact on Forecasts:**
* Forecasts trigger alerts when deviation exceeds threshold
* Forecasts inform stockout risk calculations
* Forecasts drive proactive replenishment
## What Success Looks Like
### Planner Success
* ✅ Forecast accuracy (MAPE) below 20%
* ✅ Forecast bias near zero (balanced)
* ✅ Events properly applied to forecasts
* ✅ Forecasts published and used for planning
* ✅ Forecast accuracy improving over time
### Operations Success
* ✅ Forecasts used for inventory planning
* ✅ Forecast vs actuals tracked regularly
* ✅ Deviation alerts reviewed and acted upon
* ✅ Forecasts inform replenishment decisions
### Finance Success
* ✅ Forecast accuracy metrics tracked
* ✅ Forecast impact on costs analyzed
* ✅ Forecast reports generated regularly
* ✅ Forecast bias trends monitored
### Executive Success
* ✅ Forecast accuracy meets targets
* ✅ Forecasts drive business decisions
* ✅ Forecast performance visible in dashboards
* ✅ Forecast improvements demonstrated
## Common Pitfalls
### 1. Not Applying Events
**Problem**: Creating forecasts without applying relevant events (promotions, seasonality).
**Solution**: Always review and apply events:
* Check for upcoming promotions
* Apply seasonality adjustments
* Consider marketing campaigns
* Account for external factors
**How to avoid**: Make event review part of forecast creation workflow.
### 2. Ignoring Forecast Accuracy
**Problem**: Creating forecasts but not measuring or improving accuracy.
**Solution**: Regularly measure forecast accuracy:
* Review MAPE, WAPE, bias metrics
* Identify products/channels with poor accuracy
* Adjust forecast models based on accuracy
* Track accuracy improvements over time
**How to avoid**: Set up regular forecast accuracy reviews.
### 3. Not Understanding Channel Policies
**Problem**: Creating forecasts without understanding how channel policies affect them.
**Solution**: Understand channel policy effects:
* Review ATP policies
* Understand replenishment rules
* Consider alert thresholds
* Account for channel allocations
**How to avoid**: Familiarize yourself with channel policy configuration.
### 4. Not Publishing Forecasts
**Problem**: Creating forecasts but not publishing them for use in planning.
**Solution**: Always publish forecasts after creation:
* Review forecast details
* Verify events are applied
* Publish for use in planning
* Communicate forecast availability
**How to avoid**: Make publishing part of forecast workflow.
## Troubleshooting
### Forecast Not Generating
**Symptoms**: Forecast scenario created but forecast not generating.
**Possible causes:**
1. Insufficient historical data
2. Forecast model configuration issue
3. Product/channel selection issue
4. System error
**Steps to resolve:**
1. Verify sufficient historical data exists
2. Check forecast model configuration
3. Verify product/channel selection
4. Review error messages
5. Retry forecast generation
6. Contact support if issue persists
### Forecast Accuracy Poor
**Symptoms**: Forecast accuracy (MAPE) consistently high.
**Possible causes:**
1. Events not applied
2. Forecast model not appropriate
3. Insufficient historical data
4. External factors not accounted for
**Steps to resolve:**
1. Review and apply relevant events
2. Try different forecast models
3. Verify sufficient historical data
4. Account for external factors
5. Adjust forecast parameters
6. Monitor accuracy improvements
### Forecast Deviation Alerts Not Triggering
**Symptoms**: Forecasts deviate significantly but alerts not triggering.
**Possible causes:**
1. Alert thresholds not configured
2. Alert policies not enabled
3. Deviation calculation issue
4. Alert delivery issue
**Steps to resolve:**
1. Check alert threshold configuration
2. Verify alert policies are enabled
3. Review deviation calculations
4. Check alert delivery settings
5. Test alert functionality
### Channel Projections Not Showing
**Symptoms**: Forecasts generated but channel projections not available.
**Possible causes:**
1. Channels not selected in scenario
2. Channel policies not configured
3. Forecast not published
4. Permissions issue
**Steps to resolve:**
1. Verify channels selected in scenario
2. Check channel policy configuration
3. Verify forecast is published
4. Check user permissions
5. Review channel inventory views
***
## Related Pages
* [Forecast Scenarios](/decide/forecast-scenarios)
* [Forecast Events](/decide/forecast-events)
* [Forecast Accuracy](/decide/forecast-accuracy)
* [Planning Recommendations](/decide/planning-recommendations)
* [Replenishment Planner](/decide/replenishment-planner)
***
## Permissions & Roles
Viewing forecasts requires standard user permissions. Creating and publishing forecast scenarios requires planning permissions. Contact your organization administrator for details.